by Einar Du Rietz
On March 21, incidentally my birthday, a friend from Iceland called me and said she had organized some fireworks for me. What a pity she could not set off the second eruption one week ago. With all airline traffic closed down in most of Europe, as today, the Climate conference in Bonn would have been more eventful. Or less.
But I don’t blame her. Or anyone else. I also have a solid alibi myself.
To my knowledge, honestly, no alarmist has yet tried to pin volcano eruptions on human activity. Nothing surprises me these days, so in case someone would try that over the next few days, it’s interesting to look at the statistics. It’s not Armageddon – non man made - either. Reliable, reported data on eruptions has developed mainly over the past century (though, naturally, there are plenty of earlier accounts). This compiled data shows no significant changes from then to now (though, also naturally, the cycles between eruptions are rather long). Except for the decrease in the early 40′s. I presume you can draw your own conclusions from that. But it also makes you think about the validity of different climate data. The infamous hockey stick, now not accepted by hardly any scientists for example, takes of upwards around 1990. A lot of things happened, including to observation stations, in huge parts of the world those years.
Human action – and design – can, however be valuable. The eruption might go on for days or even years, but so far there are no casualties on Iceland. According to friends there, the worst problem is that the evacuation from the area is getting disrupted by, particularly domestic, tourists, wanting to see it for real.
In 1783, another volcano erupted on Iceland. This led to bad harvests in large parts of Europe, and is generally believed to have been a major source behind the famine and subsequent turmoil in France in 1789. The world, and Iceland in particular, is just trying to recover from a major financial crisis. So far no one – in this part of the world – is talking about a revolution. Once again, draw your own conclusions!
I might get my asthma back, and I can’t fly for a while, but hey! There is a civil society out there, in case of emergency. People are now taking cab rides across half of Europe. You certainly could not do that before the car was invented, the taxi market privatized and the border controls were taken away.
On top, if the eruption continues, the average temperature will drop. Maybe as much as two degrees Celsius, It’s just a theory, but if I were the IPCC, I would at least take a little break.