To no surprise, the real winter cold enfolded most of Europe. Again.

In parts of Europe, people have died. Travelling is out of the question, as trains are stranded and the roads are dangerous. How comforting then to be able to enjoy the heating at home, cook  up a warm soup, or even venture outside in solid armour, buy a paper around the corner and escape into an even cosier corner with a hot drink.

That’s because, regardless of the extreme weather, where I am, energy works. In many places it doesn’t. As half of the nuclear plants here are down, rivers frozen and – quite naturally – all windmills are standing still, it’s a blessing to be able to, at least partly, trust that different forms of energy will somehow find their way into my hide out.

A private energy market is simply a necessity on days like this.

However, be careful not to let someone else pick up that tab. To my surprise, EU Comissioner Hedegaard has issued a warning against the general enthusiasm over bio fuels. Reports Euractiv:

A draft Commission impact assessment, obtained by EurActiv last week, indicates that the greenhouse gas emissions from biofuels such as palm oil, soybean and rapeseed may exceed those of fossil fuels when wider factors are considered.

This is because tropical forests and wetlands are often cleared to compensate for lands taken to grow biofuels elsewhere, a process known as indirect land use change, or ILUC.

“Personally, I’ve always been very cautious on biofuels,” Hedegaard told EurActiv in an interview. “It’s great to see the potential in new technologies, but we should take very much care in Europe that we are now not establishing a new big industry that we then – after some time – say, wow, that was not so good.”

Well worth considering in our cosy corners.

Please Stay There Dear Friend

One of the major news of the week has, strangely, been that we are subject to a solar storm. Beautiful to watch the following weather phenomena, but not dangerous, as it’s not strong enough to penetrate the atmosphere. Good so, but an enlightening reminder that the planet’s best friend – and worst enemy – is the sun. Eventually it will blow, or fade out. Predictions, not to mention possible precautions, are difficult, at least today. Maybe not in 3000 years time.

However, in a way insignifant alarms like this, serve as a constant reminder, that indeed we cannot control the climate. There’s a more powerful – and unpredictable – force out there. And it’s name is not carbon dioxide.

After studying these news, however, eyes are immediately drawn to the proposed “Weather Law” in South Africa. Only the governmental weather bureau will be permitted to issue reports and warnings. Consequently, a friendly warning from a fellow sailor – or a neighbour, would be prosecuted.

At least the Durban COP 17 conference would have been banned.

The most famous bet in the environmental debate is probably the one between the Late Julian Simon and alarmist Paul Erlich in 1980, over predicted shortage in natural resources. As much as the story still amuses me, it also serves as a constant reminder of the optimism we all deserve more of.

In this proud tradition, the no less proud Dr David Whitehouse, found himself in a global warming bet,staged by the BBC. Reports Whitehouse:

 ”…eventually the BBC’s radio programme “More or Less” got in touch. The programme is about numbers and statistics and they set up a series of interviews. You can hear the programme here.

Almost at the last minute the programme-makers came up with the idea of a bet. It was for £100 that, using the HadCrut3 data set, there would be no new record set by 2011. It was made between climatologist James Annan and myself. His work involves analysing climatic data and validating climate models. He accepted enthusiastically as he has a perchant for taking on ‘sceptics.’ The presenter said that if the global temperature didn’t go up in the next few years, “there would be some explaining to do.”

Later today, January 13^th, “More or Less” returns to the bet,which I am pleased to say I won, though I note that this bet, or its conclusion, is not yet mentioned on Annan’s Wikipedia entry despite his other climate bet being discussed.”

Congratualtions! Considering the hilarious amounts of money circling around in the alarmist hemisphere, maybe serious gambling could be a solid way for realists to make a decent living.

Denmark, taking over the rotating EU presidency has outlined its priorities for the next half year. Not surprising, really, but still awkward.

Reports Euractiv:

“Environment Minister Ida Auken called for making energy efficiency legally binding, dismissing concerns that weak economies and the eurozone debt crisis would trump the environment in EU policy debates in the months ahead.

‘It’s not enough to be focusing on the financial crisis right now, and then not look at just as important or just as severe a crisis – namely the environmental crisis,’she said at a briefing 12 days before the country’s EU presidency begins. ‘We have all possibilities to keep the environment on the agenda despite the hard times on the economic front.”

It might of course be that also the financial crisis is better handled with as little political intervention as possible, but remember COP 15 in Copenhagen. The presiding country at that time, Sweden, declared it the absolutely most important event during the period, in spite of having to handle the Lisbon treaty, and the host country, Denmark put loads of prestige on the table. Do I need to remind you that all agree it was an – expensive – fiasco.

Energy efficiency is better driven by market forces, in spite of the standard charades in Brussels. As for climate policy, admit that it’s just down to shuffling money in a loop none can get out of.

Meanwhile, Castro on Cuba has also declared his priorities for the next year: Prevent nuclear war and protect the environment.

Rather courageous for a dictatorial family that once drew the world closer than ever before, or after, towards a global nuclear war and has spent half a century destroying the environment for its subjects by persecuting, imprisoning and starving them.

Sidewalks are slippery, with the newly arrived and thus unusual European winter. Traffic is as bad as every year and people are frantic to make last minute purchases.

Then comes another old tradition, with a new name. It used to be some mumbo jumbo about not exploiting something, now the young hooligans blocking traffic and shopping malls call it a Climate Action.

Could, in the midst of winter, these kids at least try to show some decency towards their fellow men and women, who are just out to – with or without wheelchair or crutches – risking their health in order to spend a nice holiday.

Grumpy? You bet. But, Yes, this is not a season for grumpiness. Please take my advice, go sit on Santa’s lap instead of harassing people. Who knows, we might even get peace, prosperity and a clear sky to contemplate on that star up above.

The fact that you didn’t make it in Durban does not give you the right to deny others to enjoy the pleasures of the season. Merry Decency to you all.

Wiser from the Copenhagen hysteria, all sides – except President Zuma, who is forced to show some enthusiasm, and in a way The Holy Father, who wants a “credible” outcome (nothing wrong with credibility) - seem to agree that COP17 in Durban wont accomplish anything. As for me, I’m content with that, but it’s still fun to watch the show, including side appaerances from all places. Guess we can look forward to a lot of that.

In the UK, PM Cameron’s “Green Guru”, Steve Hilton suddenly comes out as a realist, saying he doubts the entire Global Warming idea.

Reports the Daily Mail:

‘I’m not sure I believe in it,’ he announced at a meeting of the Energy Department, prompting one aide to blurt out: ‘Did I just hear that correctly?’

Meanwhile, Canada seems to abandon ship as far as Kyoto goes.

“[Environment Minister, Peter] Kent said in the House of Commons on Nov. 22 he won’t sign a document at the Durban conference that extends the Kyoto targets.

‘Canada goes to Durban with a number of countries sharing the same objective, and that is to put Kyoto behind us,’ Kent said.” according to CTV News.

And this is just the beginning. Roughly, on the table is: Kyoto, expiring next year. The EU, not having any problems with the obligations, are for an extension, and the big players never joined. A global binding treaty that was hoped for in Copenhagen and now, if ever, might appear at least as a draft resolution in three years.

Remains the 100 billions, pledged, but still unclear how, to be spread over the earth. This is COP17. Guess the by now professional summit globerotters find that a fair sum for others to pay, in order to continue the circus.

Prof. Nir Shaviv at the 2010 International Climate and Energy Conference

For the 4th time, the European Institute for Climate and Energy (EIKE), the Berlin Manhattan Institute, CFACT and a few others host an International Climate and Energy Conference, this time in in the Bavarian capital Munich, Nov. 25.-26 (program below).

Renowned scientists such as Professors Svensmark, Shaviv, Veizer and Patzelt, as well as bestselling authors such as Donna Laframboise, Andrew Montford and Christopher Horner confirmed their participation. As in previous years, the event is going to be Europe’s no.1 meeting and debating point for climate and energy realists, bloggers, and their friends from all over Europe and beyond.

Registration works through the EIKE-page, www.eike-klima-energie.eu, or by mail, info@eike-klima-energie.eu, or by fax: +49-2641-32 79 858. Regular participation fee for this 2-day-event is 140 Euro (including 3 meals, 4 coffee breaks, 1 evening reception, conference materials, and simultaneous translation English/German and German/English). More technical details below the program.

Program (updated 10th November)

Friday – November 25

08:00 a.m. Registration

 09:00 a.m.

Welcome

Wolfgang Müller

Berlin Manhattan Institute (BMI), European Institute for Climate and Energy (EIKE)

 09:10 a.m.

The IPCC – Almost nothing you’ve been told about this organization is actually true

Donna Laframboise

Blog nofrakkingconsensus.com

 09:45 a.m.- 12:30 p.m.

Panel: Measuring vs. Modelling

Real temperature measurements vs. climate alarmism

Prof. em. Dr. Horst-Joachim Lüdecke

Hochschule für Technik und Wirtschaft des Saarlandes

 Glaciers- and forest development in high altitude alpine areas during the last 10,000 years

Prof. em. Dr. Gernot Patzelt

University of Insbruck

 Anthropogenic sea level rise: from scenario to panic

Dipl. Meteorologe Klaus-Eckart Puls

Press spokesperson EIKE

 11:30 a.m. – 12.00 a.m. Break

 Mission impossible – geological facts of carbon capture and storage in Germany

Prof. em. Dr. Friedrich-Karl Ewert

Universität Paderborn

12:30 p.m.  – 2:00 p.m. Lunch – conference venue

 2:00 p.m. – 4:00 p.m.

Panel: Cosmic Rays, CO₂ and Climate

 Climate, water, CO₂ and the sun

Prof. Dr. Jan Veizer  

Department of Earth Sciences, University of Ottawa

The cosmic ray climate link – evidence and implications to the understanding of climate change

Prof. Dr. Nir Shaviv

Racah Institute of Physics – The Hebrew University of Jerusalem

 The impact of solar activities and cosmic rays on the world climate

Prof. Dr. Henrik Svensmark  

Centre for Sun-Climate Research des Danish National Space Centre

4:00 p.m. – 4:30 p.m. Break

 4:30 p.m. – 5:30 p.m.

Panel: Update on the CERN Study Cosmic Rays and Climate Change

Prof. Dr. Jan Veizer, Prof. Dr. Nir Shaviv, Prof. Dr. Henrik Svensmark  

 5:30 p.m. – 19:00 p.m.

Panel: How scientists and project developers deal with truth

 Climategate – The story of a cover up

Andrew Montfort

Bishop Hill Blog

Not at face value – tricky contracts in wind power investments
Tilman Kluge
Bad Sonden am Taunus

 Followed by dinner

Saturday – November 26

 9:00 a.m. – 11:00 a.m.

Panel: Forecasts vs. Scenarios

 Climate change between statistics, models and substitute religion

Prof. Dr. Werner Kirstein

Institute of Geography, Leipzig University

 Accurate long term weather forecasts are possible

Piers Corbyn

Weather Action, London

 11:00 a.m. – 11:30 a.m. Break

 11:30 a.m. – 12:15 p.m.

The urban legend of the Hockey Stick

Andrew Montfort

Bishop Hill Blog

 12:15 p.m. – 13:00 p.m.

Investing wisely– opportunities and dangers in alternative energy   

 13:00 p.m. – 2:30 p.m. Lunch – at conference venue

 2:30 p.m. – 4:00 p.m.

Panel: Climate- and Energy Policy – Wish and Reality

 The green economy: Crony capitalism’s newest big idea

Dr. Christopher C. Horner

Center for Energy and Environment – Competitive Enterprise Institute, Washington, DC

The costs of Germany’s green energy agenda – plan vs. reality

Prof. Dr. Gerd Ganteför

University of Konstanz

4:00 p.m. – 4:30 p.m. Break

 4:30 p.m. – 5:30 p.m. Covering their tracks: the IPCC and transparency

Dr. Christopher C. Horner

Center for Energy and Environment – Competitive Enterprise Institute, Washington, DC

 5:30 p.m. – 6:30 p.m.

Climate policies – a threat to liberty

Prof. Dr. Gerd Habermann

Universität Potsdam, Hayek Society

 6:30 p.m. – 7:00 p.m.

Closing remarks

Dr. Holger Thuss

President Europäisches Institut für Klima und Energie (EIKE)

7:00 p.m. Reception and end of conference

7:00 p.m. Reception and end of conference

Venue: Maritim Hotel München, Goethestr. 7, 80336 München, Germany

Registration Fees:

80 € Day Tickets

140 € Private Individuals (2 days)

290 € Company Representatives (2 days)

Registrations after November 18, 2011 are subject to a surcharge of 30 € per Ticket.

All prices include VAT.

The registration fees include the conference materials, meals and coffee breaks.

Registration

Via the EIKE Website or with your full name, address and institution via fax or email.

Email: info@berlinmanhattan.org

Fax: +49(0)30 69 20 800 39

or via mail:

Registration EIKE

P.O. Box 110111

07722 Jena

Germany

Please make your registration payment payable to EIKE e.V.

Bank: Volksbank Saaletal Rudolstadt

Account: 42 42 92 01

BLZ: 830 944 54

IBAN: DE34 8309 4454 0042 4292 01

BIC: GENODEF1RUJ

All the players are gearing up for the Durban festivities in a month. Though only accounting for about 11 percent of the worlds carbon emissions, the European Union, not surprisingly wants to play a major role.

Euractiv gives an update:

Climate predictions, weather forcasts and a decent overcoat is what makes the world go round.

Here comes the new ice age. Writes the Daily Express:

Scientists say the anticipated cold blast will be due to the return of a disruptive weather pattern called La Nina. Latest evidence shows La Nina, linked to extreme winter weather in America and with a knock-on effect on Britain, is in force and will gradually strengthen as the year ends.”

Yepp.

I would be the last one to say that London weather is a pleasure, rather it’s a common theme in books and movies. The same goes for the other side of the channel. A walk along the coast around Oostende can be marvelous. A few days per year.

The positive side is that, in this case at least, media is back to recognicing the climate pattern, even making paralelles to the “little ice age”, about 300 years ago.

Are we finally back to talking science, instead of politics and money? At least something to consider in Durban, while we Europeans put on our winter coats.