The most famous bet in the environmental debate is probably the one between the Late Julian Simon and alarmist Paul Erlich in 1980, over predicted shortage in natural resources. As much as the story still amuses me, it also serves as a constant reminder of the optimism we all deserve more of.

In this proud tradition, the no less proud Dr David Whitehouse, found himself in a global warming bet,staged by the BBC. Reports Whitehouse:

 ”…eventually the BBC’s radio programme “More or Less” got in touch. The programme is about numbers and statistics and they set up a series of interviews. You can hear the programme here.

Almost at the last minute the programme-makers came up with the idea of a bet. It was for £100 that, using the HadCrut3 data set, there would be no new record set by 2011. It was made between climatologist James Annan and myself. His work involves analysing climatic data and validating climate models. He accepted enthusiastically as he has a perchant for taking on ‘sceptics.’ The presenter said that if the global temperature didn’t go up in the next few years, “there would be some explaining to do.”

Later today, January 13^th, “More or Less” returns to the bet,which I am pleased to say I won, though I note that this bet, or its conclusion, is not yet mentioned on Annan’s Wikipedia entry despite his other climate bet being discussed.”

Congratualtions! Considering the hilarious amounts of money circling around in the alarmist hemisphere, maybe serious gambling could be a solid way for realists to make a decent living.

Sidewalks are slippery, with the newly arrived and thus unusual European winter. Traffic is as bad as every year and people are frantic to make last minute purchases.

Then comes another old tradition, with a new name. It used to be some mumbo jumbo about not exploiting something, now the young hooligans blocking traffic and shopping malls call it a Climate Action.

Could, in the midst of winter, these kids at least try to show some decency towards their fellow men and women, who are just out to – with or without wheelchair or crutches – risking their health in order to spend a nice holiday.

Grumpy? You bet. But, Yes, this is not a season for grumpiness. Please take my advice, go sit on Santa’s lap instead of harassing people. Who knows, we might even get peace, prosperity and a clear sky to contemplate on that star up above.

The fact that you didn’t make it in Durban does not give you the right to deny others to enjoy the pleasures of the season. Merry Decency to you all.

Wiser from the Copenhagen hysteria, all sides – except President Zuma, who is forced to show some enthusiasm, and in a way The Holy Father, who wants a “credible” outcome (nothing wrong with credibility) - seem to agree that COP17 in Durban wont accomplish anything. As for me, I’m content with that, but it’s still fun to watch the show, including side appaerances from all places. Guess we can look forward to a lot of that.

In the UK, PM Cameron’s “Green Guru”, Steve Hilton suddenly comes out as a realist, saying he doubts the entire Global Warming idea.

Reports the Daily Mail:

‘I’m not sure I believe in it,’ he announced at a meeting of the Energy Department, prompting one aide to blurt out: ‘Did I just hear that correctly?’

Meanwhile, Canada seems to abandon ship as far as Kyoto goes.

“[Environment Minister, Peter] Kent said in the House of Commons on Nov. 22 he won’t sign a document at the Durban conference that extends the Kyoto targets.

‘Canada goes to Durban with a number of countries sharing the same objective, and that is to put Kyoto behind us,’ Kent said.” according to CTV News.

And this is just the beginning. Roughly, on the table is: Kyoto, expiring next year. The EU, not having any problems with the obligations, are for an extension, and the big players never joined. A global binding treaty that was hoped for in Copenhagen and now, if ever, might appear at least as a draft resolution in three years.

Remains the 100 billions, pledged, but still unclear how, to be spread over the earth. This is COP17. Guess the by now professional summit globerotters find that a fair sum for others to pay, in order to continue the circus.

Driver Still Behind the Wheel

I love a sunny story and the most recent one I stumbled upon, cherished in the environmental movement, is a recent innovation – still under development – of a new method to turn toxic textile.factory effluent into clean water.

Go for it, Maria Jonstrup!

One of the most disturbing ingredients of the environmental debate, is the tendency to find a conflict between a decent environment and scientific and industrial innovations. While some, and indeed Dr Jonstrup’s, are admittedly labelled Green, others are seen as the enemy. What’s really the historical perspective, if we agree that environment means the living conditions for humans?

To make a travesty of Howard Roark’s court speech in The Fountainhead: Once upon a time, one man found out how to tame fire. He was probably burned at the stake by the local environmental organization.

Virtually all innovations have initially been under attack by environmental, or religious sceptics, be it electricity, motor vehicles or nuclear power. The current exception normally is what’s referred to as Green Invention, most often not primarily because it’s good for the environment, but because it got the blessing by the government, in other words is financed with tax money.

Jonstrup seems to be a welcome exception to this. Another one would be the recently started experiments with “no driver vehicles”, including trucks, using advanced GPS equipment to navigate, thus optimizing the fuel consumption and emissions. Don’t be scared. The tests so far have a human driver along, just in case, a bit as in commercial aircraft on autopilot. Exciting! What I like is that it’s developed in cooperation between universities and industry. Good luck!

Prof. Nir Shaviv at the 2010 International Climate and Energy Conference

For the 4th time, the European Institute for Climate and Energy (EIKE), the Berlin Manhattan Institute, CFACT and a few others host an International Climate and Energy Conference, this time in in the Bavarian capital Munich, Nov. 25.-26 (program below).

Renowned scientists such as Professors Svensmark, Shaviv, Veizer and Patzelt, as well as bestselling authors such as Donna Laframboise, Andrew Montford and Christopher Horner confirmed their participation. As in previous years, the event is going to be Europe’s no.1 meeting and debating point for climate and energy realists, bloggers, and their friends from all over Europe and beyond.

Registration works through the EIKE-page, www.eike-klima-energie.eu, or by mail, info@eike-klima-energie.eu, or by fax: +49-2641-32 79 858. Regular participation fee for this 2-day-event is 140 Euro (including 3 meals, 4 coffee breaks, 1 evening reception, conference materials, and simultaneous translation English/German and German/English). More technical details below the program.

Program (updated 10th November)

Friday – November 25

08:00 a.m. Registration

 09:00 a.m.

Welcome

Wolfgang Müller

Berlin Manhattan Institute (BMI), European Institute for Climate and Energy (EIKE)

 09:10 a.m.

The IPCC – Almost nothing you’ve been told about this organization is actually true

Donna Laframboise

Blog nofrakkingconsensus.com

 09:45 a.m.- 12:30 p.m.

Panel: Measuring vs. Modelling

Real temperature measurements vs. climate alarmism

Prof. em. Dr. Horst-Joachim Lüdecke

Hochschule für Technik und Wirtschaft des Saarlandes

 Glaciers- and forest development in high altitude alpine areas during the last 10,000 years

Prof. em. Dr. Gernot Patzelt

University of Insbruck

 Anthropogenic sea level rise: from scenario to panic

Dipl. Meteorologe Klaus-Eckart Puls

Press spokesperson EIKE

 11:30 a.m. – 12.00 a.m. Break

 Mission impossible – geological facts of carbon capture and storage in Germany

Prof. em. Dr. Friedrich-Karl Ewert

Universität Paderborn

12:30 p.m.  – 2:00 p.m. Lunch – conference venue

 2:00 p.m. – 4:00 p.m.

Panel: Cosmic Rays, CO₂ and Climate

 Climate, water, CO₂ and the sun

Prof. Dr. Jan Veizer  

Department of Earth Sciences, University of Ottawa

The cosmic ray climate link – evidence and implications to the understanding of climate change

Prof. Dr. Nir Shaviv

Racah Institute of Physics – The Hebrew University of Jerusalem

 The impact of solar activities and cosmic rays on the world climate

Prof. Dr. Henrik Svensmark  

Centre for Sun-Climate Research des Danish National Space Centre

4:00 p.m. – 4:30 p.m. Break

 4:30 p.m. – 5:30 p.m.

Panel: Update on the CERN Study Cosmic Rays and Climate Change

Prof. Dr. Jan Veizer, Prof. Dr. Nir Shaviv, Prof. Dr. Henrik Svensmark  

 5:30 p.m. – 19:00 p.m.

Panel: How scientists and project developers deal with truth

 Climategate – The story of a cover up

Andrew Montfort

Bishop Hill Blog

Not at face value – tricky contracts in wind power investments
Tilman Kluge
Bad Sonden am Taunus

 Followed by dinner

Saturday – November 26

 9:00 a.m. – 11:00 a.m.

Panel: Forecasts vs. Scenarios

 Climate change between statistics, models and substitute religion

Prof. Dr. Werner Kirstein

Institute of Geography, Leipzig University

 Accurate long term weather forecasts are possible

Piers Corbyn

Weather Action, London

 11:00 a.m. – 11:30 a.m. Break

 11:30 a.m. – 12:15 p.m.

The urban legend of the Hockey Stick

Andrew Montfort

Bishop Hill Blog

 12:15 p.m. – 13:00 p.m.

Investing wisely– opportunities and dangers in alternative energy   

 13:00 p.m. – 2:30 p.m. Lunch – at conference venue

 2:30 p.m. – 4:00 p.m.

Panel: Climate- and Energy Policy – Wish and Reality

 The green economy: Crony capitalism’s newest big idea

Dr. Christopher C. Horner

Center for Energy and Environment – Competitive Enterprise Institute, Washington, DC

The costs of Germany’s green energy agenda – plan vs. reality

Prof. Dr. Gerd Ganteför

University of Konstanz

4:00 p.m. – 4:30 p.m. Break

 4:30 p.m. – 5:30 p.m. Covering their tracks: the IPCC and transparency

Dr. Christopher C. Horner

Center for Energy and Environment – Competitive Enterprise Institute, Washington, DC

 5:30 p.m. – 6:30 p.m.

Climate policies – a threat to liberty

Prof. Dr. Gerd Habermann

Universität Potsdam, Hayek Society

 6:30 p.m. – 7:00 p.m.

Closing remarks

Dr. Holger Thuss

President Europäisches Institut für Klima und Energie (EIKE)

7:00 p.m. Reception and end of conference

7:00 p.m. Reception and end of conference

Venue: Maritim Hotel München, Goethestr. 7, 80336 München, Germany

Registration Fees:

80 € Day Tickets

140 € Private Individuals (2 days)

290 € Company Representatives (2 days)

Registrations after November 18, 2011 are subject to a surcharge of 30 € per Ticket.

All prices include VAT.

The registration fees include the conference materials, meals and coffee breaks.

Registration

Via the EIKE Website or with your full name, address and institution via fax or email.

Email: info@berlinmanhattan.org

Fax: +49(0)30 69 20 800 39

or via mail:

Registration EIKE

P.O. Box 110111

07722 Jena

Germany

Please make your registration payment payable to EIKE e.V.

Bank: Volksbank Saaletal Rudolstadt

Account: 42 42 92 01

BLZ: 830 944 54

IBAN: DE34 8309 4454 0042 4292 01

BIC: GENODEF1RUJ

Just found out that (according to BBC):

“When you were born, you were the:3,453,632,094th person alive on Earth and 77,442,249,607thperson to have lived since history began”

Go on, take the test. Don’t know what it’s really good for, but it’s a bit of fun, at least if you are easily amused. And please help me figure out how the exact numbers were calculated.

It’s apparently the magic in the numbers that now has awaken the Neo Malthusians, as we are supposed to reach seven billion any day now (Monday, according to the UN). Why not 6, 123 or 7,456? No, it’s the magic number. Over population is the scare of the day.

Well, walk outside and check if it’s really that crowded. Every time this scare appears, the doomsayers ignore some basic observations.

Some parts of the world, e.g, parts of Africa, rather suffer from too few people, with a poor infrastructure. The most crowded country in Europe (not counting those really tiny ones) is Holland. Last time I was in Holland, I did not hear anyone complain.

Many major European cities suffer from a housing shortage and excessive rental costs. To make a comparison, Stockholm has been struggling with the problem for decades, in Brussels, you can get a nice flat for a decent price just looking around during an afternoon. In the city with most expats per capita in the Union. The former city is highly regulated since WWII, the latter virtually lacks any regulations of the housing, or rental market. And when trying to navigate, you at least get the feeling that there has been no city planning since Leopold II. Good so.

Nativity varies and it is a well known fact that people tend to produce more offspring during war and poverty. Some, more well off, European countries are suffering from declining populations, bringing a threats to e.g. pension schemes.

But most importantly, never leave your moral compass in the desk drawer. Anytime you hear someone elaborate on the virtues of the – unbelievably inhuman – one child policy in China, or as a few Greens actually can do, consider forms of genocide, academically of course, it is claimed, check your premises and remind yourself of the one thing that really matters. Creating and caring for children are the most private parts of our existence. And should so remain.

All the players are gearing up for the Durban festivities in a month. Though only accounting for about 11 percent of the worlds carbon emissions, the European Union, not surprisingly wants to play a major role.

Euractiv gives an update:

What is it about? Whether global warming is natural or manmade is of crucial importance for both climate science and climate policy. Hence the the update on this issue. Besides, the author, an expert in atmospheric and space physics and founding director of the US Weather Satellite Service, discusses chaotic uncertainties of climate models and how to overcome them, Climategate and the Hockeystick graph – and shows “what we can say about the absence of post-1979 warming in the temperature data of the 20th century.”

The brochure has been/is presented by Prof. Singer during his (ongoing) lecture tour in Europe. Editions in German, French, Spanish and other languages are in preparation (German will be next). The book has been published with the support of the European Institute for Climate and Energy.

NIPCC vs. IPCC, Addressing the Disparity between Climate Models and Observations: Testing the Hypothesis of Anthropogenic Global Warming, Interim Science Update, Presented at Majorana Conference in Erice, Sicily, August 2011, ISBN 978-3-940431-28-8, TvR 2011, 28 p. (29×21,5 cm). 27 illustrations and graphs (19 in color). 10,00 EUR.

It’s old news, but hey, that’s history for you.

A new booktakes a look at both the history of the cold war and the environmental movement. And especially environmental impact from both. You may not agree with everything, but sometimes it’s important to remember how absurd the world really was in those days.

The major part of Europe put in ruins, by all sides, during WWII. The rebuilding of Germany, well, West Germany, and the continous lunacy in Stalinist Russia.

The Soviet rapid industrialization put aside any environmental concern. Not to mention safety.

The worst lunacy, probably, potentially dangerous for all of the world, the reverse of the floods, was halted. If that project really had been carried out, you could possibly talk of real man made climate change.

Wars and famine are the worst environmental problems. Though the so called West were not always the nicest chaps. that’s nothing compared to the – partly deliberate (Ukraine), partly unavoidable – starvation in – Yes – The Evil Empire.

At the same time, the Green movement went around cursing, guess who?