Two of the more intriguing accusations I got thrown at me in Copenhagen were: “Climate Hater” and “Weather Denier”.

Funny, but strange. I’m convinced that cursing along, hating the ever changing climate is about as constructive as trying to steer a sailing boat by shouting orders to the winds. Either one would just drive you mad (and possibly injured). Denying the weather seems more promising, but equally dangerous. Is that what you do when you take that boat out in spite of the approaching storm?

There’s no room to deny the record breaking cold winter right now. Yo might enjoy the complete silence from the alarmists in Copenhagen, who really picked the wrong year for the meeting, or you may rejoice over the increasing polar ice and the happy polar bears, but the problems are real.

More than 200 dead, just from the cold, in Poland alone. Numerous other victims all over Europe, and the US. Disrupted communications, often fatal traffic accidents, broken limbs on slippery sidewalks, power failures and skyrocketing electricity bills tell the story.

The lesson is to be prepared, and luckily, most people in the developed world are. We have different forms of heating, some in rural areas with two or more alternative sources. We have sound clothing, stocked up food supplies, winter adjusted tires, cell phones, heated cars, sometimes even functional emergency health care. At least most advanced hospitals have several back up systems in case of a black out.

That’s not because we decided to change our lifestyles in Copenhagen, stopped burning fossil fuels or discourage technological development. It’s thank’s to the fact that we never really did that. If you live in Finland, Sweden, Hungary, Austria and some other countries, you most likely also have the chance to hide yourself from the cold in a steaming sauna. That’s what I do, every day, and I’m not sitting there hating neither climate nor weather.  I celebrate that I have won the battle so far.

Dr. Roy Spencer

Dr. Roy Spencer in Helsinki

Recent satellite evidence shows that computer climate models project too much future warming according to Dr. Roy Spencer who gave the first talk at a yearly meeting of climate realists in Finland coordinated by Dr. Boris Winterhalter.  Dr. Spencer is a resercher in meteorology and former Nasa climate scientist.    He explained that climate models are thrown off by a small amount of warming which results when extra atmospheric carbon dioxide reduces cloud cover over the Earth. This amplifies the warming predicted by the models and is an example of “positive feedback.”  In the 21 climate models tracked by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the differences in warming are mainly attributable to varying degrees of positive cloud feedback.

Dr. Boris Winterhalter

In contrast, data from NASA’s Terra and Aqua satellites over the period 2000 – 2007 shows strong negative cloud feedback.  Dr. Spencer attributed the discrepancy between the models and observations to the the climate modelers failure to account for natural cloud variation which was shown to cause temperature change in previous satellite studies.  In simple terms, the IPCC confused cause and effect in interpreting the co-variations between temperature and cloud cover.

These results, which have been submitted to the Journal of Geophysical Research for publication, suggest that increased CO2 is insufficient to explain global average warming during the last 50 to 100 years.  Spencer offered an alternative explanation, that the Pacific decadal oscillation modulates global cloudiness by a small amount which changes approximately every 30 years and supported this with satellite evidence.

Discussion with attendees focused mainly on the possible role of solar variation in global warming.  Spencer replied that solar activity might also be involved, and it is therefore increasingly obvious that there are many unanswered questions as to what truly causes climate change on decadal to centennial time scales. After the talk Dr. Spencer conducted an interview which aired on Finland’s national television along with taped portions of his presentation .