The party season has started. In about a month, Rio will be crowded by politicians and hooligans for the mega environmental gathering, but allready next week, good old Hotel Maritim in Bonn will fill up with the usual bunch for yet another climate conference.

Nothing wrong with Bonn, or Maritim for that matter, but don’t people get bored? From the UNFCCC invitation:

“The 36th sessions of the Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI) and of the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA), the fifteenth session of the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action…”.

That’s just for starters, but it seems like the same show again. 36th session! And over the past decade, when these meeting have intentsified, there has been no significant global warming, and certainly not any man made climate change. Should be pointed out, to avoid misunderstandings, that we have indeed seen tradegies that could fit into the environment chategory, Tsunamis, earthquaqes, starvation and war, but none of these are adressed neither under the roof of Maritim. Or by the usual Tibetan vegans traditionally entertaining visitors outside.

And you easily start getting the feeling that even the organizers are feeling that this is just business as usual. After all, some years have passed since the global hysteria in Copenhagen, a bunch of climate gates for example (though the first erupted right before the meeting), and things that people in general really do care about. Some wars, economic crisis in Europe, a couple of elections, to mention a few.

But Bonn is nice, and though even the lunch burger at Maritim is rather tasty, I would rather recommend some really nice restaurants to enjoy after a stroll along the Rhine.

The Most Recent Results of the Poll

Opinion polls in general, and instant polls on the Internet in specific, ought to be handled with a fair dose of doubt. On top, just the fact that a bunch of people say this or that, does not mean they are right.

But I cant resist giving you this account (from climatescam.se there is a translation function on the site, but at the moment it seems to be down).

Mr Peter Stilbs draws our attention to an attempt by Don Mickulecky, to restore the father of the Hockey Stick, Michael Manns reputation.

Though the poll is just web based, it’s rather astonishing.

Sorry, Dr Mann, it’s nothing personal. Just news worth sharing. Take some comfort in the real Hockey season, going on right now.  Though it looks rather frightening, it fun to watch occasionally. And those are real hockey sticks.

QED, mild winter is over. Freezing cold and snow falling on Oslo and Strasbourg, as well as – last time I checked – Athens.

Weather should not be confused with climate cycles, but observations are necessary to make scientific assessments. As even the IPCC has now admitted that there has not been any global warming for quite a while, it’s time to really change focus. No time for alarmism, but to stop the expensive CO2 hysteria. David Rose makes some important observations in The Daily Mail:

“Meanwhile, leading climate scientists yesterday told The Mail on Sunday that, after emitting unusually high levels of energy throughout the 20th Century, the sun is now heading towards a ‘grand minimum’ in its output, threatening cold summers, bitter winters and a shortening of the season available for growing food.

Solar output goes through 11-year cycles, with high numbers of sunspots seen at their peak.

We are now at what should be the peak of what scientists call ‘Cycle 24’ – which is why last week’s solar storm resulted in sightings of the aurora borealis further south than usual. But sunspot numbers are running at less than half those seen during cycle peaks in the 20th Century.

Analysis by experts at NASA and the University of Arizona – derived from magnetic-field measurements 120,000 miles beneath the sun’s surface – suggest that Cycle 25, whose peak is due in 2022, will be a great deal weaker still.”

Happy Valentine’s!

Please Stay There Dear Friend

One of the major news of the week has, strangely, been that we are subject to a solar storm. Beautiful to watch the following weather phenomena, but not dangerous, as it’s not strong enough to penetrate the atmosphere. Good so, but an enlightening reminder that the planet’s best friend – and worst enemy – is the sun. Eventually it will blow, or fade out. Predictions, not to mention possible precautions, are difficult, at least today. Maybe not in 3000 years time.

However, in a way insignifant alarms like this, serve as a constant reminder, that indeed we cannot control the climate. There’s a more powerful – and unpredictable – force out there. And it’s name is not carbon dioxide.

After studying these news, however, eyes are immediately drawn to the proposed “Weather Law” in South Africa. Only the governmental weather bureau will be permitted to issue reports and warnings. Consequently, a friendly warning from a fellow sailor – or a neighbour, would be prosecuted.

At least the Durban COP 17 conference would have been banned.

The most famous bet in the environmental debate is probably the one between the Late Julian Simon and alarmist Paul Erlich in 1980, over predicted shortage in natural resources. As much as the story still amuses me, it also serves as a constant reminder of the optimism we all deserve more of.

In this proud tradition, the no less proud Dr David Whitehouse, found himself in a global warming bet,staged by the BBC. Reports Whitehouse:

 ”…eventually the BBC’s radio programme “More or Less” got in touch. The programme is about numbers and statistics and they set up a series of interviews. You can hear the programme here.

Almost at the last minute the programme-makers came up with the idea of a bet. It was for £100 that, using the HadCrut3 data set, there would be no new record set by 2011. It was made between climatologist James Annan and myself. His work involves analysing climatic data and validating climate models. He accepted enthusiastically as he has a perchant for taking on ‘sceptics.’ The presenter said that if the global temperature didn’t go up in the next few years, “there would be some explaining to do.”

Later today, January 13^th, “More or Less” returns to the bet,which I am pleased to say I won, though I note that this bet, or its conclusion, is not yet mentioned on Annan’s Wikipedia entry despite his other climate bet being discussed.”

Congratualtions! Considering the hilarious amounts of money circling around in the alarmist hemisphere, maybe serious gambling could be a solid way for realists to make a decent living.

Climate predictions, weather forcasts and a decent overcoat is what makes the world go round.

Here comes the new ice age. Writes the Daily Express:

Scientists say the anticipated cold blast will be due to the return of a disruptive weather pattern called La Nina. Latest evidence shows La Nina, linked to extreme winter weather in America and with a knock-on effect on Britain, is in force and will gradually strengthen as the year ends.”

Yepp.

I would be the last one to say that London weather is a pleasure, rather it’s a common theme in books and movies. The same goes for the other side of the channel. A walk along the coast around Oostende can be marvelous. A few days per year.

The positive side is that, in this case at least, media is back to recognicing the climate pattern, even making paralelles to the “little ice age”, about 300 years ago.

Are we finally back to talking science, instead of politics and money? At least something to consider in Durban, while we Europeans put on our winter coats.

Click to play Methane Madness!

“Put a cork in it, Al!”

That’s the message students are sending Al Gore, radical climate campaigners and assorted other bohemians, grant-seekers and profiteers cashing in on the global warming craze.

Al Gore is calling on folks to make September 14th a day of climate action through a series of propaganda videos he will be broadcasting worldwide.  CFACT calls for a day of genuine “climate realism” instead. CFACT Collegians are spreading the word with a bit of online levity.

CFACT’s Methane Madness game trains online players to help “Pal Gore” control the climate by corking cows and watching them float away. Methane is more potent than CO2 as a greenhouse gas but less than 1% of atmospheric greenhouse gases come from cattle. Even so, radical climate campaigners call for shutting down our cattle and dairy industries along with much of the rest our economy. They’d like us to go vegan.

However, climate science IS NOT SETTLED; computer models are not all that; observations don’t fit the models; man’s impact on climate and atmosphere is dwarfed by nature’s; Climategate is just the tip of the corrupt science iceberg; more scientists find the courage to match their analysis every day and declare against the scare; offsets are a scam; alternative energy is inefficient; citizens can now spot warming propaganda; economies in crisis can’t afford the waste; carbon profiteers rake in tax dollars but don’t affect the climate; consensus is not science; there has never been a consensus; freedom and prosperity are the proven path to cleaner environments; our meat and dairy industries are home-based, thriving industries that feed multitudes and employ the nicest people you’ll ever meet; developed nations have enough to eat for the first time in history; etc; etc; etc; etc….

WHOA! All those dreary, inconvenient facts! Gore won’t enjoy those. As Scarlett O’Hara said, “I can’t think about that right now. If I do, I’ll go crazy. I’ll think about that tomorrow.”

If they succeed in corking all the cows, Methane Madness players can move on to further levels and put a cork in Gore and company’s hot air.

Don’t worry, CFACT’s always been about free speech. Corks come out. Gore and his celebrity buddies can go right back to spewing their hot air. It will take cold facts for realism to triumph over alarmism on climate. CFACT wouldn’t have it any other way.

“Jobs just aren’t waiting for us when we graduate the way they used to,” said Methane Madness player Josh Smith, a student at University of Wisconsin.  “Al Gore preaches we should live with less, while he flies from mansion to mansion.  I don’t even know how I’m going to pay my student loans.  Put a cork in it, Al!”

If levity’s not your bag, there’s always plenty of global warming facts and analysis debunking the scare here at www.CFACT.eu,  www.CFACT.org and at www.ClimateDepot.com.

Maybe we should just skip this project

That it was fairly good for preventing colds I knew, but now apparently garlic is the way to prevent global warming.

Reports euractiv:

Hope the cows will like it. Personally, I a fan, especially when I’m eating cows, but I don’t want it in my milk.

And the report does not mention the smell. And not any other potential side effects. What about the bugs? At least on humans, garlic is believed to be a repellant. Will this in turn affect the bird life? Guess a new bunch of money would be welcome, before the entire idea is picked up by the Comission, for a garlic cow directive.

Guess the five millions were well spent so far. At least the garlic growers and distributors will think so.

Climate science is anything but settled.

For years, physicist Henrik Svensmark of the Danish National Space Institute (who has presented at conferences organized by CFACT and EIKE) has been asking inconvenient questions about the relationship between the sun, clouds and climate.  He demonstrated in the lab that cosmic rays from the sun affect cloud

Henrik Svensmark

formation.  Cosmic rays are a factor not meaningfully considered in the computer climate models which global warming proponents have declared to be so robust that they are beyond discussion.

To the vexation of true climate believers, Svensmark’s work has been confirmed at CERN, the European Organization for Nuclear Research.  CERN is home to the Hadron super conducting super collider near Geneva.  CERN simulated the effect of cosmic rays in the earth’s atmosphere and found that it does indeed influence cloud formation.

This is very inconvenient science for the global warming campaigners, researchers and myriad carbon carpetbaggers, all of whose incomes have come to depend on government willingness to accept the authority of climate models as gospel.  The more people know about computer climate models, the less they are willing to curtail the freedom and prosperity of the developed world.

Can European scientists like Svensmark and the researchers at CERN restore rigorous scientific questioning to climate science?  Will scientists again research, question, write and speak without fear of political reprisal?  Is this the beginning of a new enlightenment?  Europe’s done it before.

Not yet a Tornado

Please tell me that we are beginning to see signs that otherwise alarmist journalists are beginning to both listen to science and to make the distinction between cause and effect. Even the crusader Susanna Baltscheffsky manages to write an interesting article (in Google translation) on weather phenomena. She points to why Tornadoes are more powerful in the US, than in Europe, because of geographic factors, and even acknowledges that solar activity is a major force in our sometimes irregular climate and weather. Some commentators still point out that she babbles a bit over CO2, but I’m more positive. Honor as due.

Because as all media outlets constantly need to comment on the climate debate, in most of the cases – everywhere – the reports are sloppy and filled with standard assertions, presented as facts. That Global Warming is increasing (on the contrary, if you look at current statistics). That the sole force behind this is human activity (simply a myth, as you probably know), that extreme weather has increased enormously (it has not, rather tornadoes, tsunamis and more tend to be cyclical and dependent on the geography), all polar bears are dying (the population has increased) and that we are running of oil (supplies are likely to increase if only people are alloud to drill for it, even if some middle east dictator decides to set fire to the fields in his country).

The above is just sloppiness, but it’s important, when hearing environmental statements to also try to look for causality. In the words of Bastiat: There what you see and what you don’t see.

To pick an example. Having an allergy my self, I’m always intrigued when I hear that due to environmental pollution, allergies have increased rapidly during the past century. Is there really a link? Well, possibly a small one, how about some other factors!

First of all, pollen is not a pollutant (except for me and my fellow sufferers) and it does not increase because of industrial activity.

Diagnosis has increased. That is not the same as increasing occurrence. What a hundred years ago was perceived as a normal cold, is today allergy.

Infant mortality has decreased. There is a reason why allergies are uncommon, sometimes never heard of in developing countries. And, sad to say, I would probably not have survived, maybe not even until being born, a couple of hundred years ago.

Thanks to industrialization, I am able to write this. And I’m rather grateful for that.